FairangeOpen books
How we estimate
We’d rather be slightly boring and checkable than flashy and mysterious. Here’s the whole machine.
Last reviewed Nov 1, 2026
Estimates are not quotes. Contractors set their own prices. Use our band to sanity-check bids.
The formula
Labor = job_hours × local_hourly_wage × contractor_markup Materials = baseline_materials × regional_materials_factor Total = Labor + Materials Range mixes low/mid/high hours & materials with p10 / mean / p90 wages
Markup (2.0× / 2.25× / 2.5×) is our stand-in for billed labor — benefits, truck, overhead, profit. It is not a BLS number. Materials baselines are editorial assumptions listed below; we dampen regional differences so materials don’t swing as wildly as wages.
Job baselines
| Job | Trade | Hours L/M/H | Materials L/M/H | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central AC Replacement | hvac | 8/12/16 | $3,200/$4,500/$6,500 | job |
| Furnace Replacement | hvac | 6/9/14 | $1,800/$3,200/$5,200 | job |
| Heat Pump Installation | hvac | 10/16/24 | $4,500/$7,500/$12,000 | job |
| Water Heater Replacement | plumber | 3/4.5/7 | $550/$950/$1,800 | job |
| Toilet Installation | plumber | 1.5/2.5/4 | $120/$280/$550 | job |
| Pipe Repair | plumber | 2/3.5/6 | $40/$150/$450 | job |
| Drain Cleaning | plumber | 1/1.5/3 | $0/$25/$100 | job |
| Roof Replacement | roofer | 0.08/0.12/0.18 | $4/$6/$9 | sqft |
| Roof Repair | roofer | 2/4/8 | $75/$250/$800 | job |
| Gutter Installation | roofer | 4/7/12 | $400/$900/$1,800 | job |
Sources
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) — Mean, median, and percentile hourly wages by metro for SOC 49-9021 (HVAC), 47-2152 (Plumbers), 47-2181 (Roofers).
https://www.bls.gov/oes/
License: Public domain (U.S. federal government). Cite BLS. Do not use BLS emblem. https://www.bls.gov/opub/copyright-information.htm · May 2025 OEWS estimates, retrieved via BLS public API on 2026-11-01 - BLS Producer Price Index – Construction materials (WPUSI012011) — National PPI for construction materials used to contextualize materials cost trends over time.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPUSI012011
License: Public domain. Cite BLS. · Latest observation used: 2026-09 index value 378.610 (1982=100) - IRS Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (IRC §25C) — Federal tax credit rules for qualifying HVAC, heat pumps, water heaters, and related improvements. Amounts and eligibility change; we link rather than hard-code dollar claims as guarantees.
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/energy-efficient-home-improvement-credit
License: U.S. government work / public domain guidance pages. · Referenced 2026-11-01; readers must verify current tax year rules. - ENERGY STAR Federal Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency — Product eligibility summaries for federal credits.
https://www.energystar.gov/about/federal-tax-credits
License: U.S. EPA/DOE government material; generally reusable with attribution. · Referenced 2026-11-01 - DSIRE – Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency — Directory of state, local, and utility rebates. We link users to DSIRE rather than republishing proprietary compilations.
https://www.dsireusa.org/
License: Content owned by N.C. Clean Energy Technology Center; linking and fair citation. Do not scrape/republish full database without permission. https://www.dsireusa.org/ · Link-out resource - U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas — Metro area definitions aligned with OEWS area codes.
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro.html
License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau). · OEWS May 2025 area definitions
Tip from us: if a bid is far outside the band, ask which line items changed — tonnage, tear-off layers, panel upgrade — before assuming someone “ripped you off” or found a miracle price.