Data report · Nov 1, 2026

Water heater replacement costs by metro (and why “before winter” isn’t in our data)

We skip fake seasonal discounts. Here are metro planning estimates — and what urgency costs that wage data can’t see.

Chart: Fairange mid estimates · BLS OEWS May 2025 · Share freely with attribution

We don’t publish seasonal price indexes — BLS OEWS wages aren’t a winter surcharge table — so we won’t pretend a November swap is automatically cheaper than a March one. What we can say: when a tank fails in a cold snap, you pay urgency and after-hours premiums that never show up in wage files.

Planned replacements still vary by labor market. Mainland metro mid estimates for a standard water heater job run from about $1,117 (Hot Springs) to $1,589 (San Jose). National mid: $1,301.

If you’re deciding whether to wait, budget the Fairange band for your ZIP, then add a real-world buffer for emergency dispatch. Use the water heater calculator and read the plumber city notes under guides.

#	Metro	St	Mid	Band
1	San Jose	CA	$1,589	$781–$3,267	$54.94/hr
2	Bellingham	WA	$1,511	$728–$3,131	$49.45/hr
3	Portland	OR	$1,497	$749–$3,144	$48.42/hr
4	Chicago	IL	$1,467	$733–$2,961	$46.36/hr
5	Seattle	WA	$1,466	$727–$3,182	$46.27/hr

#	Metro	St	Mid	Band
1	Hot Springs	AR	$1,117	$607–$2,233	$21.72/hr
2	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission	TX	$1,129	$609–$2,229	$22.62/hr
3	Jonesboro	AR	$1,132	$613–$2,233	$22.77/hr
4	Brownsville-Harlingen	TX	$1,133	$616–$2,245	$22.88/hr
5	Gadsden	AL	$1,145	$605–$2,272	$23.70/hr

Estimates, not bids. Fairange planning estimates from public BLS wages plus published hours/materials assumptions. Not contractor bids. Hours, materials baselines, and contractor markup (2.0× / 2.25× / 2.5×) are ours — published on the methodology page. Wages are BLS OEWS May 2025. Always get local written bids.

Also: ZIP calculator · city guides · how we estimate · press kit

By The Fairange team · [email protected]